Is it easier to get into your home program? I figure if they didn't like you then they wouldn't even write you a positive LOR. The fact they write one must be somewhat positive, or do they just write one to everyone who asks but put neutral or negative remarks if they though bad?
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You are much likely to match at your home program because they are more likely to know your caliber. Not necessarily easier, just more data available to validate your quality. Your home program will definitely write you a letter, they basically have to. Yes, they might write a lukewarm letter. Very rarely I've seen an actually bad letter.