Past October 15th, Time to Panic?

[ihatemyself]

Well, it's October 16th.  How many interviews should one theoretically be at to feel comfortable now and not be panicking?  What the threshold to start talking to your PD or chairman about other options?

If my counting is correct about 70% of programs have now invited.

[doctorK]

(10-16-2017, 10:20 AM)ihatemyself Wrote: Well, it's October 16th.  How many interviews should one theoretically be at to feel comfortable now and not be panicking?  What the threshold to start talking to your PD or chairman about other options?

If my counting is correct about 70% of programs have now invited.

NRMP stats would suggest that if your step 1 score is >240 and you have the ability to rank >8 programs, you have a pretty solid chance of matching

[MrGyrus]

I think this would be a good time to evaluate, and if things aren't going as well, hopefully, you have a good interaction with your home program PD so that they can make a few calls in your favor. If that is the case you could probably get an additional 2 invites.

If you are data driven, the information below is based on the last Charting Outcomes available.

According to the latest Charting Outcomes, after 8 or > contiguous ranks (8 interviews assuming you rank all of them contiguously), you are more likely to match than not (slightly over 50% at 8). Also at 17 or > contiguous ranks (17 interviews, assuming you rank them all contiguously), you are at or above 90% chance of matching, which is what I would consider a sweet spot. After 17, the benefit plateaus so there is an only minimal additional benefit for any interviews above 17. I think that at that point, it just becomes a matter of strategy. Then again because the analysis seems to be univariate, it is unclear whether the contiguous ranks data is mostly attributed to the fact that you went to that many interviews or if it is more a reflection of how competitive you were as an applicant during that cycle. Data such as the proportion of people that match at their different rank positions (first, second, third, etc), would perhaps be more enlightening, but these data are not available.

[Guest]

(10-16-2017, 10:54 AM)MrGyrus Wrote: I think this would be a good time to evaluate, and if things aren't going as well, hopefully, you have a good interaction with your home program PD so that they can make a few calls in your favor. If that is the case you could probably get an additional 2 invites.

When is a good time for us to contact programs we haven't heard from to see where we stand and/or if we could get an interview there? 

Thanks in advance.

[Guest]

Lol, I'm a looooong way from 17 invites. FML.